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Worldwide Exchange

Ross Westgate and Kelly Evans consider the business stories that have global significance.

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U.s. 42, Russia 24, China 24, Ukraine 19, Us 18, John Kerry 14, Crimea 13, Paris 11, Beijing 8, S&p 7, Lavrov 7, Kiev 7, Europe 6, Julia 6, Google 5, Geico 5, San Francisco 5, Adp 5, Eu 5, Moscow 5,
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  CNBC    Worldwide Exchange    Ross Westgate and Kelly Evans consider the  
   business stories that have global significance.  

    March 5, 2014
    4:00 - 6:01am EST  

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welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm julia chatterley. these are your headlines around the world. the u.s. and russia come face-to-face as john kerry gears up to meet the foreign russian minister in paris. china is set for an ambitious target at 7.5% gdp this year, defying expect ages of lower forecasts. this is the national people's congress gets under way in beijing. standard chartered shares
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jump despite posting a drop unanimousul profit. the lender says its current performance momentum is better dhan last year. the lender slashes its fwoenus pool by 15%. and today's u.s. adp report could show hiring in the u.s. sector slowed last month. this as winter weather continues to have the job growth. >> you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. more cautious sentiment as far as the european markets are concerned this morning, despite ongoing signs of improvement of dialogue as far as the ukrainian/russia situation is concerned. pretty evenly split on the stoxx europe 600 this morning.
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you did see a contraction as far as the french services pmi. the concern, at an eight-month low there. the best data seen in germany since june 2011. mixed performance in the markets this morning. the ftse 100 just 0.1% lower. relatively unchanged for the german and french markets. a little tentative trade on the ftse mib, up 0.5%. let me give you a picture as far as the asian markets were concerned. overnight, the nikkei 225, the yen was weaker as well overnight in trading. a bit of caution as far as the chinese markets are concerned. we'll talk about an update from the national people's congress later on in the show. a bit of concern about a central bond default from a solar company about impacting trade. stronger gdp in the fourth
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quarter from the australian helping lift stocks and sentiment in that market, too. a quick check on the foreign exchange rates this morning. dollar/yen slightly higher, 0.2% in trade this morning. a little bit of excitement about that market and the risk rally that we saw in yesterday's trading session. euro/dollar relatively unchanged. they were off the high, 1.3825. the u.s. secretary of state john kerry and russian foreign minister lavrov are due to hold face-to-face talks in paris today. the two are expected to test the viability of a talk on the lebanon and syrian war. the u.s. has accused moscow of an act of aggression. >> russia, if it wanted to help
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de-escalate this situation, could return its troops to the barracks, live by the 1997 base agreement, and de-escalate rather than expand their invasion. >> mixed messages there, but steve sedgwick, of course, in kiev. steve, how are the ukrainians reacting to the signs of a greater dialogue between russia and the west right now? however we look at this, the ukrainian government is in a very difficult position, not recognized by the russians. >> look, this is a really, really early stage of dialogue. everybody has been talking at each other. the obama administration and putin talking at each other. the ukrainians and russia talking at each other. the fact that anyone is talking to each other is a very important initial stage. but there is such a long way to go, especially when you consider the language from lavrov, from kerr we, from oh bam in, from
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putin. we saw it all in the last 24 hours. accusation and counteraccusation. putin says there are no russian troops there are russian defense forces. kerry was god smacked. nbc's andrea mitchell told him putin said that. putin says there's an illegitimate government here in kiev. kerry says how can it be illegitimate when the parliament approved this government? putin says there are ant anti-semantic running in kiev. kerry says, i drove through kiev, i walked through kiev, how can that be the case, mr. putin? but let's look at the positive side of things. progress, kerry is going to be speaking to lavrov. nato and the russians will be speaking, as well. it's sluggish, but there is a ministerial level conversation going on.
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the russians maybe, despite mr. putin's comments about the illegitimatesy of this government, there was some progress there. but the hard proof is there are russian forces or pro russian forces, whatever you want to call it, on ukraine territory. talking about putin's speech yesterday, this is hard lined. it says the confessions of a mad adegreeson with a caricature of mr. putin. a humanitarian mission? and then we have a third bun referring to those shots and pictures of unarmed ukrainian airmen trying to get back into their base and pro-russian defense forces firing shots above their head. this is talking about that incident saying we are proud of you, proud of the restraint their armed forces are showing. i've just been down to the
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square talking about one of the lead movements. not only are they conceptual of russian intentions, they're stunningly skeptical of their own government. they don't trust their own government, julia. >> we have a couple more flashes about the crimea region. russian forces seizing two ukrainian missile defense units in the crimea. that's according to interfax quoting military forces. we've heard from the foreign minister saying he wants to settle the conflict, he does not want to fight russia. and the uk primary saying russian aggression is having a significant effect on the ukrainian economy. >> steve, come back in here. we know we have the imf on the ground. just how quickly are those talks progressing? >> look, i think what seems clear is the eu is in a very
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difficult position on. this since like having sanctions against iran and there still being the better part of 90 million barrels or less on the table. you put sanctions in against the russians, as much as it would hurt the russian revenue, if they just tweaked gas supply to the west, as well, where we take a third of our gas from russia, those sanctions are going to hurt us straightaway. and you see this wonderfully documented piece where a british document was photographed bay snapper, they said actually we're not going to have sanctions against russian business, we're fought going to have sanctions against russian billionaires and banks because we're worried about what that will do to the trading position of london and the global economy. self-interest seems to be higher on the agenda for the eu and the british included in that eu than it does looking at sanctions. the obama administration looking at limitations, banking sections, as well, but is that
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just talk at this moment? could they get something cohesive on an international level? i doubt it. perhaps it will come domestically. there are so many people who saw their fortunes go down with the falling ruble, who are concerned about the lack of fdi, which is going be going into russia if it becomes almost a country's on grata, as well. perhaps it's economic and money pressure to put the real pressure on mr. putin rather than anything the west can conjure. over the last 24, there's a conference in london looking at russia, looking at investment interests. funny enough, despite the fact that i wasn't here, as well, that conference was canceled. that could be the real problem for mr. putin. >> i did see a report of a survey suggesting 735% of the russian population dints want to see russia take
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military action in the ukraine and it was not able to be viewed. we'll catch up with you later on in the show. china's growth target has been set at 7.5%, the same as last year. this as the national people's congress gets under way. eunice yoon joins us now. there's a lot of expectation that they would lower this growth target to give them some flexibility here. is it right to question their view on reforms here? are they going to still target 757%? how do they balance everything? >> there are many investors wondering whether they are questioning that and whether or not they will have commitment
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giving through to reforms. but at the same time, what's interesting here is that the headlines that came out of this conference so far have been about the costs of the economic development that they've seep in the past several years. one of the main headlines was about pollution, the chinese premier at the -- during his work report declared a war on pollution. and the government released hard targets on cutting pollute yapts, anywhere between 2% to 5%. the authorities had said that they were going to change the energy pricing system and they said that they were going to cut capacity in some of the more polluting industries, such as cement and steel. all of this is in recognition that something has to be done to
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clean up the wreckage after growth. >> markets affecting larger parts of china and environmental pollution has become a major problem, which is nature's red light warning against the model of inefficient and blind development. we must strengthen the economic environment and resolve to take forceful measures to complete this challenging task. >> now, we heard the announcements from before and there are many people who are worried about whether or not the government at the end of the day is really going to be willing to sacrifice growth in order to try to push through some of these reforms and address some of on these issues, not only on pollution, but also on debt. in terms of pollution, people are saying that if you really want to shut down a lot of these factory webs you could end up with a lot of workers who don't have any place to go. that is one of the main concerns that could actually leave some questions in people's minds as to whether or not the government
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will be able to push ahead and make these changes, julia. >> thank you. and if i also noticed a 12.5% rise in their defense budget, too. we've seen expressions of concern before the japanese, which is perhaps surprising. is that a waste of money? what's the feedback been on that rise? i know it's something they seem to do everything year, but still. >> right. and i think that that -- you hit the nail right on the head and that is that there was an expectation that the military budget spending was going to go up this year. in fact, it has for the past several years. that rise is the highest we've seen in the past three years. but not so much an unexpected thing, just because the government here has been talking about how it wants to modernize its military. there had been some recognition that china will be playing a greater role on the world stage.
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now, what was also interesting today on that note when you mention japan was the fact that the chinese premier also said that they wouldn't really stand for countries that try to reverse the course of history. so it was an oblique remark that people are attributing as to be a reference to japan. and potentially try to constrain a rising china. because as you had suggested, there have been many concerns around the region that china has been more assertive and more hostile in the region and with its foreign policy. >> eunice, thank you so much for your perspective. we'll catch up with you later on in the show. coming up, we'll have more on what's being laid out at the national people's congress.
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we'll continue to watch the situation in the ukraine. we've had some comments from the ukrainian foreign minister saying we don't want to fight the russian people, we want good relations with the russian neighbors and they are proud, so proud of their nave despite the russian occupation. the word there of the crimea. we'll continue to bring you that story and go back out to steve later on in the show. that's despite the lender posting a drop in annual profits. could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance.s everybody knows that. well, did you know that when a tree falls in the forest and no one's around, it does make a sound? ohhh...ugh. geico. little help here. i need>>that's my geico digital insurance id card -
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admiral group up 5.5%. the provider recorded a 7% rise in 2013 profit. moving to the french markets, carrefour is up 1%. the company posted a 5.3% rise in full year operation profits, slightly ahead of analyst expectations. and adidas down 0.5% this morning. investors reacting negatively to the fourth quarter numbers, despite posting a 3.3% rise in sales at the top end of expectations. the company warned its 2014 results would be hit by weakening emerging market currencies such as the ruble and the ukrainian crisis adds considerable risk to the numbers
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this year. now, the biggest property developer in beijing's central bybusiness distinct, soho china, said earnings rose a third as more properties were booked during the year. the soho ceo was asked about performance by cnbc's bernie lowe. >> property has been a big question mark for on many years and it continues to be. you grab the headline news and any policy that comes out, it's affect affecting the people. so we do commercial real estate and selling homes and residenti residential, so on that's slightly different. >> i was surprised to find you here in hong kong. i thought you were going to be up in beijing. but one of the things that susan just highlighted as they came out is they decided to address
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the property issue head on. they claim there is some progress on some sort of a national property tax. given the property tax, although it seems residential, will that have knock on effects through commercial? >> i think they've been talking about that. every year at this time, people grabbing headlines. what will pay attention to government policy? it's not surprising they've been talking about property tax. that's been anticipated for many years. i think the market has digested that. everybody expects it to be gradual. so it's important to start having property taxes. if you hold property in china, there's no property costs. if your home is sitting there
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empty, there's no penalty because you don't really feel hurt. that's why the worry is there are so many buildings and not being occupied and not being neutralized. and so having introduced the property tax will deal directly with that. now, continuing to hold the property if there's a tax you need to pay every month? >> highly rated u.s. companies sold more than $19 billion in debt on tuesday, the busiest day of the year. they looked to take advantage of recent rallies in u.s. treasuries to lock in the rates. other companies issuing debt include citigroup, high bond and coke.
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moody's has cut chicago's general obligation sales tax revenue rating by one notch to baa-1. this is the second downgrade in less than eight months. chicago faces a $600 million hike in payments through its requirements systems next year. the mayor has warned without release from lawmakers chicago may be forced to double property taxes or eliminate vital public services. mrb's ceo jan chen faces a 50/50 chance his turn around plan will fail. but he remains optimistic. he tells the financial times the process will take time, but he hopes the company will become a dominant player in the mobile markets.
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china wou blackberry would like to be profitable by tend of 201115. shares this morning, 2% lower, so underperforming in the german market session. shareholders prefer odds a bit better than 50/50 at this stage. but that's what he said. bitcoin bank flexcoin shuts its doors after losing monies to hackers. all bitcoins were stored online and were stolen on sunday. bitcoins were stored jau line. flexcoin's closure comes days after mt. gox filed for bankruptcy. benjamin netanyahu is trading diplomacy for high tech devices today visiting silicone
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valley. the prime minister will first meet with california governor jerry brown to sign a cooperation agreement on issues such as water cooperation and alternative energy. apple and mobile's messaging service being bought by facebook, of course, also widely uses in israel. later in the show, we'll get some top tips for the tech sector. that's what we want to know from you. what tech stocks would you invest in today? and do you think apple still has the edge? is facebook old news? join the conversation here on "worldwide exchange." get in touch by e-mail, by twitter or direct to me,@jchatterleycnbc. carl icahn will be joining the u.s. "squawk box" team at 6:00 eastern time. make sure you stay tuned for that. still to come on the show, growth in the uk service sector
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slowing since january. will that trend continue in february? find out. our clients need a lot of attention. there's unlimited talk and text. we're working deals all day. you get 10 gigabytes of data to share. what about expansion potential? add a line, anytime, for $15 a month. low dues, great terms. let's close! new at&t mobile share value plans our best value plans ever for business. a short word that's a tall order. up your game. up the ante. and if you stumble, you get back up. up isn't easy, and we ought to know. we're in the business of up. everyday delta flies a quarter of million people while investing billions improving everything from booking to baggage claim.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." u.s. and russia come face-to-face in paris. the relief rally in the markets continues to fade from europe's trade. china sets an ambitious target to 7.5% growth this year, defying expectations of lower forecasts from some quarters. this as the national people's congress gets under way in beijing. standard chartered shares jumped despite posting a drop in annual profits. this as the lender says current performance is better than last year. the lender also flashes its bonus pool by 16%. and today's u.s. adp report should show hiring slowed last month as winter weather continues to hamper jobs growth. let's get a quick check on how the european markets are
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trading so far this morning. as you can see, compared with the gains we saw from yesterday's trading session, gains of more than 2% from the german and french markets. a bit of stabilization here. similar stories for the french markets. just the italian markets here managing to hold in positive territory, higher by around 0.25%. let's have a look at the bond market trading session this morning. we're seeing a core bond prices falling this morning. but german bund yield higher. now we're seeing that yield lower by 1.62%. ten-year treasuries, 2.7%. one-month high. the ten-year gilt trading at 2.73% and the periphery in europe continuing to see gains as far as prices are concerned. ten-year italy spreads trading just shy of 3.4%. we have uk pmi data out this morning services sector for
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february coming in at 58.2. that's slightly weaker than we saw in january, a touch shy of expectations. 58.3 were the expectations. the forecast around 58. so better than expected, but slightly weaker than we saw in january. now let's get to our chief economists at markets and joins me on the set now. interesting to see the impact of weather feeding this into this space. we did expect a bit of weakness. are you expecting a boundback next month? >> it is. i think the resilience is all the more impressive given you how extreme the weather has been in some parts of the country. so on to sustained even level suggesting the economy could have groan by 0.7% in the first quarter. it's a great performance. and yes, it should pick up again.
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some will lose the business completely. those revenue res lost forever. as far as manufacturing and construction, they're all bouncing back again. >> and what you're saying about businesses and what they're seeing right now, if we look at the manufacturing pmi, the construction numbers, too, it's the strong employment expectations or the future intentions of these businesses as it continues to be a key driver here. do you expect that momentum to continue? >> exactly. when you look at these headline numbers, besides the global evidence, there's two real reasons to expect growth to pick up. most importantly is the employment number. now, of course, the three sectors, job creation is at the highest we've ever seen in the history of the survey, stretching back to the late 1990s. we are running job creation around 150,000. it's a really decent rate of momentum. so that unemployment rate should continue to fall in the uk
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heavily. companies in the service sector, they were the highest since late 2009. >>. given what was going on with the political risks, the lending data, the business lending continuing to contract. look at the fact that the business investment group 8.5% in the fourth quarter. can we make the point here, perhaps, that actually these firms are cash rich and don't need to borrow from these banks? >> exactly. they've been bitten by the banks once. they don't want to go back there again. they're happier raising monetary funds and finding any other means to invest than go to the banks. >> cautious on those lending figures, perhaps we should give it a bit of perspective. >> exactly. when you look at that manufacturing number on monday,
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investment saying the fourth quarter for pmi signaling third in the first quarter, demand for investment goods and manufacturers still soaring on the fastest rates they've seen in decades, so a great start to the year. the pmi data there fell to 47.2, significantly below the 50 level that separates contraction from growth. but we did see stronger numbers out of italy. the service sector there back above 50, posting the highest reading since march 2011. interesting to see a pick up in italy this morning. >> yes. and those countries really showing signs of life. the numbers are wavering a little in some cases, but both of those countries on for strong growth or reasonable growth alongside the fourth quarter. >> poor numbers again this
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morning. >> poor numbers again. but it is moving to some signs of stability. manufacturing showing some gains. services is the weak link. of course, we track private sector services and they're still struggling very much with malaise once consumers and businesses at home. the gdp numbers there affect treasury reports out yesterday, looking at the surveys. and the big difference we got between the pmis and the gdp performance is that government spending which is still going up big time, whereas the private sector is stuck in a rut. >> need to take more action. chris, thanks for joining us, chief economist at market. u.s. secretary of state john kerry and the russian foreign minister lavrov are expected to hold face-to-face talks today. the two are expected to test the environment of a talk on lebanon and the syrian war. the u.s. has accused moscow of
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deploying troops in crimea's region describing it as an act of aggression. >> russia, if it wanted to help de-escalate this situation could return its troops to the barracks, live by the 1997 base agreement, and de-escalate rather than expand their invasion. >> nbc's jim maceda is in moscow. jim, putin said in his speech yesterday that he didn't have troops in the crimea. he also acknowledge the idea, perhaps, of a further dialogue. so what is the situation here? and do you believe in a diplomatic solution given what putin was saying yesterday? >> good morning, julia. what a difference a day makes. based on putin's comments, many would say that they're taking them with a grain of salt. but he did say tuesday that he
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saw no need for the use of force in ukraine, he had no desire to an ex the crimean peninsula. that has allowed in people's perception for a stepping back from the brink. this cold war style military confrontation seems to be yesterday's news. and even though crimea remains tense today on the ground, there have been more exchanges of fire, there's been an approach by the russians to take over a ukrainian post again. still, even though these forces are locked in a standoff, it now appears as if ukraine is spinning not towards war, but some kind of a diplomatic solution. and you mentioned john kerry's visit to kiev yesterday. he showed support to the new government there. very strong words against vladimir putin and that $1 billion in loan promise. but today, kerry is meeting for the first time since the current crises ka lated with survei
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lavrov, his counterpart, to talk exit straftgy. you' you've got ukrainian and russian governments talking for the first time and a russian representative will be discussing with ukraine later in brussels. obviously, there's only one man who can make or break this situation. that's obviously vladimir putin. despite the flurry of diplomacy, the u.s. is still determined to make putin pay a price for what they see as the illegal violation of another country's sovereignty. julia. >> let me pick you up on that point. they're still wanting to make him pay of the annexation of crimea that he denies having done. where does that leave us as far as future sanctions are concerned? >> well, the effort is ongoing. obviously, it's being led by the united states and the eu to come up with a package of sanctions that would work.
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a mix of economic and certainly financial measures. but they would only have -- if everyone is on board. the u.s. and eu have admitted that. there are worries about a backlash given, for instance, europe's dependance on russian gas. and putin's record of being able to turn on and turn off at will when he needs to the gas taps. and even putin in his press conference yesterday in a very calm, unthreatening way, as is his style, warned about that. he said that in this interconnected world, those who impose sanctions can be heard equally as well as those who receive the sanctions. that message was very clear to europe and america. julia. >> thanks so much, jim. we'll catch up with you later on in the show. we've had some comments out this morning again from the russian foreign minister. he's saying that the militia in the crimea are not under moscow's orders. they're going back, of course,
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we were just talking about that putin made yesterday. lavrov said they could order back to bases because they are not russian. he's saying that they will protect russians in the crimea, but he just said that those forces are only for self-defense. many in the ukraine don't expect the kiev government. they said yesterday that they don't recognize that occupation. and he will meet kerry in paris. actually, the russian foreign minister confirming that he will meet kerry tomorrow. he also has said up to the crimean and ukrainian authorities whether to invite international observers. this is part of a possible diplomatic solution to invite observers into the country to find out what's going on in that region and to make sure that those minorities and majorities, the ethic population in those two countries are protected.
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china's parliament has set the growth target at 7.5 %, the same as last year. >> development through innovation, seek a new path of industrialization, i.t. application, urbanization and modernization with distinctive chinese features. accelerate transformation of the growth model, structural adjustments and industrial upgrading. strengthen the development of basic public service systems, ensure and improve the people's well being. joining us now is the chief strategist at rio economic. so they're going to manage the debt situation in the respectal government. they're going to accelerate
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reforms, they're going to management the politics and the pollution situation in the country and they're going to manage to have 757% growth. is that credible, do you think? >> i'm afraid not. i don't think a reform agenda would encompass 7.5% growth. it's worth noting last year was the first year china's working age population declined. this year, it will continue to decline. subsequently, if china is to grow 757%, it needs productivity growth across the whole economy. which is really impossible without continuing massive amounts of fixed asset investments, which will only exacerbate the overcapacity problems in the economy. so listening to what is being said, it seems to me that there
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are attitudes about reform, but nothing of substance. we had financing in the first half of the year that is way too rapid. i think reform is receiving significant setbacks in china at the moment. >> obviously, as far as the market is concerned, very much focused on the local government debt issue. they've raised the quota of bonds allowed to be issues by the local governments, 400 billion yuan from 350 billion last year. is that about managing the amount of debt that we see issued from these regions or do you see this is a failure, too, in that they're still allowing this to grow? >> yeah. i think just allowing the aggregate amount of credit and debt and social financing to keep growing is really what concerns the market in particular. i think that going forward, china needs a period of two or three years of money supply
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growing slower than nominal gdp in order to reign in the exce excesses of the last five or six years. china now has a money supply of about $8 trillion u.s. that is about $7 trillion more than the u.s. it's a much smaller economy than the u.s., but has so much more money sloshing around. and adding to it, only axer as bates the problems of asset bubbles and excess capacity in the chinese economy. >> it's been very negative on the hopes for reform here. i guess one of the other biggest risks here is is divestment as far as implementation is concerned. loosening the grit as far as reforms are concerned. >> well, i think reform is very much part of a credible reform
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agenda. we were led to believe that there will be significant statements about reform. there haven't been yet, but we're still in the early dates of the national people's congress. perhaps we'll see something more coming through. but i think the headline of 7.5% gdp growth this year is itself a really worrying number, given the fact that we've had 7.7% gdp growth in each of the last two years. the target for the whole five-year plan was 7%. so if we've got 7.5% even for this year, then they're really not looking to reign in the economy very much. it appears that the new leadership is still focused on very rapid growth, including allowing credit to continue to grow at the spectacular pace that the markets have become very concerned about.
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>> in their defense now commit the point that they did say reasonal range as far as they're concerned and they're trying to introduce some flexibility there. thank you for your comments. now, the world's largest election will be under way in just over a month from now. india's parliamentary elections will take place on april 7th and that will until through may 16th. india has 814 million eligible voters. polls show the electorate favoring the hindy nationalist pjp party over the ruling centralist party. it sounds like a logistical nightmare, as far as i'm concerned. china's services sector continues to expand. services pmi is shown rising to 51 in february with firms optimistic about increased business activity.
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in india, the services pmi remains in contraction, but it was slightly higher than the january reading. now, elsewhere, retail sg soaring in its hong kong debut. this japanese clothing powerhouse did not sell any shares or raid dirnt additional funds. transfers of 168,000 shares from tokyo to hong kong. each hong kong depository receipts in stocks. the owner plans to triple the number of on greater china stores to over 1,000 by 2020. it's another about a bad day for bitcoin. $6,000 of the digital currency went missing in a hacker attacks with flexcoin. the company is now shut down
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following the incident. in japan, the government is creating venues for trading. >> discussions are still ongoing, but bitcoin will be dealt as a commodity. similar to gold and not as a currency. substances made from bit coin will be subject to japanese tax. and the ministry's economy and not the financial services agency will likely become in charge of oversight. the regulation for bitcoin was called for after a tokyo based bitcoin exchange filed for bankruptcy last week. the value of additional currency worldwide at one point reached nearly $10 billion, making it too big for regulators to ignore. and japan will be the first major country to attempt to regulation the virtual currency, but enforcing the rules could
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prove difficult as tracking down users would be left to the regulators. that's all from nikkei business report. back to you. now let's give you a look at what's on the agenda in asia tomorrow. australia will release january trade data and retail trade figures. renren and qihoo will report earnings. auctionary poly culture will debut on the hong kong stock exchange. still to come on the show, england plans to increase its exposure to hedge funds and private equity. stay with us. [ male announcer ] how can power consumption in china, impact wool exports from new zealand, textile production in spain, and the use of medical technology in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections
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of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing.
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many hedge funds are sticking out the emerging market turmoil despite becoming more positive on emerging markets. the number of leading fund managers are telling cnbc they remain under levels despite the emerging markets and the restrictions that come from typical hedge fund c structures. for more on this report, head online at cnbc.com. hedge fund managers seek out
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gains from last month. will it continue? anthony lawler, portfolio manager at cam, joins me now. anthony, hedge funds got hit in january, classic japanese reflation trade. actually, those kinds of trades that have helped them pick up that performance in february. >> that's an important question, i think, by and large the answer to that question is no. the hedge funds have performed well in february. that were largely event driven and equity hedge funds. they continue to do well this year. in an environment why equities are arguably fully valued and not many people want to err to the bond exposure of current yields, money into managers that can take advantage of exposure in which we are seeing within equities and across sectors. >> flowing back into bond funds here, aren't we? look at yields. >> yes, we are seeing money flow
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back into credit instruments and into bond funds, that's right. i think the greater rotation has been overstated. we don't really see that. we've seen a lot of deployment into yield assets of credit and some high yields and sovereigns. and certainly into alternatives, as well. even though the asset classes talked about has been on low each quarter, we've hit new all-time highs in assets and alternatives. into yield assetes and terps, yes, i would agree. >> do you have a sense of what's going on as far as russia and the ruble is concerned, very much in focus this week, but it has been a sustained period of sell-off over the last six to 12 months as far as that was concerned. i kind of wonder whether you see them after the hedge fund, what's there? >> there hasn't been a conviction trade for hedge funds. so we haven't seen a lot of activity. you were making a comment
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earlier about emerging markets not being embraced by hedge funds. and i think that that is true in russia, as well. we haven't seen long or short trades, the big conviction trade. more trades in japan, as you said, which still isn't working. we think later this year that could come back. same with the long dollar trade. >> are they sticking with it? >> they've been hand slapped, they've reduced positioning. the long dollar and the yen trade remain trades in favor quite a bit smaller than they were. >> let's introduce another story. the bank of england putting more faith in equity and hedge funds. the commission is set to meet next month to decide on the allocations of the church's $6 billion endowment fund. they're trying to expoincrease exposure over developments. the move will cement the position as one of the largest single investors in hedge funds
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and private equity. justin welby last year was forced to admit the church has a long holding in wenger. i guess this goes back to the point you were saying about returns as far as equities were concerned right now. there's concern for investors like the church of england. >> that's very interesting. if you look on a calendar year basis in 2000, for 14 calendar years, seven of those kal door years to take s&p as a proxy for global equities, seven of those 14 years, the s&p has been down or up single digits. that's sort of people's expectation for this year. s&p up a little or down a little. in six of those seven years, you've got better return holding event driven hedge funds or equity hedge funds. i think with the relation that potentially the risk reward is more attractive holding managers who can go long and short rather than simply holding the markets
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this year. >> anthony lawler, portfolio manager still with me, of course. thank you so much. still to come on the show, russia's foreign minister saying many in ukraine don't expect kiev's new government. will the fighting remain when he meets t u.s. secretary of state john kerry today? we'll be discussing. stay tuned.
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welcome to "worldwide exchange." these are your headlines from around the world. u.s. and russia come face-to-face as john kerry gears up to meet russia's foreign minister in paris. the relief rally in the markets begins to fade. china sets an ambitious target of 7.5% gdp growth this year, defying expectations of forecasts in some sources. this as the national people's congress gets under way in beijing. standard chartered shares
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jumped despite posting a drop in annual profits as the lender faced current performance better than last year. the lend er slashes its bonus pool by 15%. and today's u.s. adp report should show hiring in the private sector slowed last month as winter weather continues to hamper jobs growth. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. we've got the eurozone q4 gdp growth confirmed at 0.3% quarter on quarter. that's 0.5% year on year. that, of course, is the second reading unrevised at 0.3% quarter on quarter. this following mixed sector
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numbers out of the eurozone. sectors shrank at its fastest rate in february. that's 50 suffering its contraction from growth. but stronger numbers out of ita italy. the service sector back above 50 posting the highest reading since march 2011. stronger numbers for growth may actually boast. now, chief economist at rbc capital markets joins me now. james, it's tough. we look at these pmi numbers, but it's tough to move the dial. great we're seeing 0.3% quarter on growther growth in the fourth quarter, but it's still going to be very tepid, isn't it? >> that's the key message. we get very excited about these moments. a little bit up one month, a little down the next month. the key message is they stabilize just below the benchmark.
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we see it's fully expected to reveil a flat 2014. until it continues on a very lackluster pace. and what about still the divergence we're seeing as far as club med is concerned. better numbers in spain and italy here. hans, still a real problem. >> i think fistly, if you sclus france, manufacturing of services are now above 50. so whether you're looking at greece or germany, they're all above 50. so signs of based improvement in the macro outlook in the euro area. the frenchman has a big outstanding weakness. we shouldn't place too much emphasize on that. the french pmi is not a great indicator. now they're thinking of some of the other high frequency and survey data. it's not going to be a great year for the french economy. i don't think it's going to be as weak as the pmi suggests. >> the other, mario draghi saying inflation is way below the european central banks.
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gold, ecb president says the longer it stays at such a low level, the harder it will be to get it above that target. this is ahead of the rate decision which is due at 1:45 cet. james, you're one of the few actually calling for a 15-basis point cut tomorrow. >> i think that is the case this time around. in order to stabilize an anchor, in the money markets. in the current environment, there's no real argument against that, i don't think. if you look at inflation way below target right now, i think when the ecb unveils its projections for 20116 tomorrow, inflation around about 1.6%, 1.7% at most. inflation is much lower than the ecb would like. >> what else? what else do you expect? you're talking for them to stop this -- >> absolutely. i think the two entry. you could do one or you could do the other. i think the most logical thing to do is to do the two in tandem. narrow the corridor and to flip
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the markets liquidity. the two of those things should help stabilize. so you get a lower rate and a more stable rate. that is confidence and make it a little bit more to foster and improving the military transmission mechanism and in the real economy. >> we only have 24 hours to wait and see. james, great to talk to you. let's give you a look at what's on today's agenda in the united states. the february adp employment report at 8:15 eastern. forecasts calling for an increase of on 160,000 in private sector payrolls last month. and at 10:00 a.m., we get february ism services. at 2:00 p.m., the fed beige book report. and we'll see a weather impact there, too. a pair of fed presidents speak, richard fisher and john
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williams. as for earnings, look for results from brown-forman and pe petsmart. john kerry and survei lavrov are due to hold face-to-face talk necessary paris today. the two expect to test the viability of a dialogue on the ukrainian crisis on the sidelines of a planned conference on lebanon and the syrian war. ahead of this, lavrov has said the international community reacted wrongly to the unrest in ukraine, setting a bad example by supporting protesters who seize power in violation of the constitution. steve sedgwick is, of course, in kiev. steve, what do you think of these comments as far as negotiations are concerned between russia going forward and the ukrainian government? >> let me make one comment on
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that before we get to our next guest. 24 hours ago, mr. putin was saying it was an illegitimate government, that yanukovych was still the legitimate president. but now it appears that there are talks between the prime minister here in ukraine and indeed russian ministers a the a minister upon minister level. that has to be progress going forward. they recognize in russia there are ministers and people on the ground to talk to. so talking to, rather than talk at each other, that is progress. in the meantime, what is extraordinary about this situation? something i've learned is that white lr boots on the ground from russia in crimea, there are huge protests behind me, other people are getting on with their lives. others are waiting for the signals to get back to normal. that goes side by side with all
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these political and military events. sir, thank you very much indeed for joining us. there's the point, if i may, we've seen a military intervention. in the meantime, you're an international company, you're part of a big, big u.s. corporation. how has business been? do you get on with it or is everything being thrown completely up in the air? >> of course, there is a slowdown because of a lot of fear. people are uncertain about what is going on. they cannot make money. they can't promote themselves without understanding what the future is. the army on the ground was not good. some other minor stuff and mentoring government and people are simply more -- on growth.
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>> but your company, being part of the social media revolution, is it a contradictory position, on one part, people don't want to invest in advertisement but on the other hand, they're desperate for information. the june activity has been enormous in ukraine for google services. >> many moments last month, for social networks and posting services. there's only one way for people to get information than to coordinate their efforts. research by capital several times to -- activity of people in social sites or facebook is very normal. this is a very big boom of
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independent -- >> what is going to happen next? i mean, what you were telling me off camera is we need to seek the development of civil society in this country. social media is a large part of that, as well. i guess google try toes play its part. >>. >> give people opportunity to express their feelings. now hoping to develop in this country because it was born a couple of weeks ago behind us and it's going to continue to growth. >> just one big question for me, if i may, and it has nothing to do with the military or nothing to do with which government in many ways. successive government ves shown the inability to deal with corruption that goes top to bottom and bottom to top, as well. how difficult is it for an international company like google to work with that backdrop? >> well, it's very difficult. it's very hard to be public dealing with this.
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we simply couldn't assess the other company and -- business. so the corruption limited us. >> dmytro sholomko, thank you for joining us. very little changes in the markets this morning. the dow, nasdaq and the s&p ending higher yesterday by over 1.5%. right now, the due futures indicating relatively unchanged. the nasdaq 1 point lower and for the s&p 500, just one point lower. investors here taking a pause and trying to decide which direction to push this in. let me give you a look at the european markets this morning. taking back a gain from yesterday's session above 2% for the french and german markets. right now, the ftse 100 is lower
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by around 0.4%. german markets 0.2%. strong pmi services and composite data out of germany this morning. the french markets lower by 0.2%. and italy relatively unchanged in trading today. this morning we've got the uk markets lower. real focus this morning on the shanghai composite lower by 0.9%. concerns about the potential for bond default from the solar company there driving some of that sentiment. but, of course, it is the national people's congress. stay tuned. we'll head out to beijing for more on that right after the break.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." these are your headlines. as ukraine tensions persist, u.s. secretary of state john kerry meets russia's foreign minister in paris today. and china's annual policy meeting is under way. the country hoping to see 7.5% gdp growth this year. and wintry weather in the u.s. expected to -- today's adp jobs numbers.
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china's leadership has set a 2014 growth target of 7.5%. that's the same as last year. this is the annual meeting of china's parliament, the national people's congress gets under way. eunice yoon joins us live from beijing. eunice, they're going to speed up reforms, they're going to manage the debt risks, fight pollution and all at the same time as maintaining growth at 7.5%. i don't believe it. >> that's the idea. and that is definitely their hope. as you said, all eyes were on this work report that was read today by the premier. the main focus of it, of course, were the targets. everybody was wondering what the growth target would be. came in at 7.5% and for consumer inflation at 3.5%. the feeling has been that it's an indication the government has some willingness to accept a
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lower rate of growth than previous years. in the past, we would hear about this. there have been comments not only by economists who have a lot of questions, but also by policymakers themselves. there was a government economist who had mentioned that the authorities would be willing to accept a lower rate of growth than the target. so that's actually having a lot of -- stirring things up in the market. now, in terms of the other highlights, people were talking about how the premier was focusing on the costs of that economic growth. he declared a war on pollution. he also -- his government had also discussed plans to try to revamp some of the issues in -- with debt to try to help the
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local governments be able to tap the bond market. now, another major highlight was on the military spending. military spending is going to rise in 2014 by 12.2%. that bigger number as well as the accompanying comments from the china premier would not allow the country to reverse the course of history has been ruffling feathers in the region, to say the least. julia. >> thanks very much, eunice. great to chat with you. still to come on the show, you missed out on the facebook rally, did you? don't despair. when we come back, we'll talk about tech stocks. stay with us.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's give you a look at how the u.s. futures are faring ahead of this session today. indicating slightly higher. the s&p 500 lower by around 1 points. the dow jones lower by around 7 points and the nasdaq 3 points. yesterday, the dow ending the day up 11.4%.
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the outperformer up 11.7% in trading today. bitcoin's flexcoin is shutting its doors after it lost bitcoins worth around $600,000 due to hackers. all 869 bitcoins stored online were stoling on sunday. flexcoin says it's working with authorities to track the source of the hack. it will return bitcoins stored off-line for what's known as in cold storage back to users. blackberry's ceo john chen says there's a 50/50 chance his turn around plan will fail, but he remains optimistic. he tells the financial times the process will take time, but he hopes the company will become a dominant player again in the mobile market. chen has set a goal of blackberry being cash flow positive by the end of this fiscal year and profitable by
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march 2016. you have to feel like investors would prefer higher probability than 50/50 right now. in a few moments, we'll get some tech stock picks. but ahead of this segment, we've been asking you which tech stocks would you invest in today? stell apple. matter of time according to marcus. men time, josh sweets, i like int intel. facebook, that's old news and they spend money like a drunk sailor. i wouldn't know anything about that. if you want, join the conversation here on "worldwide exchange." get in touch with us by e-mail, by twitter. now, scott pedler joins me now. scott, quickly, i know you cover the big names the likes of google.
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where do you see value in those names in particular? >> thanks for having me, julia. so in terms of the bigger names, the more marquis names in the technology sector, whether you're talking about an apple or facebook or google or twitter or yahoo! of those five names, we have two recommended as buy. so we like apple here, especially ahead of what we expect will be announcements related to increasing amcations of capital, related to buybackes and dividends, as well as perhaps new category announcements coming in the next few months. we also like yahoo! we upgraded that stock relatively recently. we see the alibaba ipo moving ahead and we see that as a catalyst for the stock moving forward. morgan stanley said they're a buy even though there are valuations going back to levels. many analysts are looking at price. what do you view on valuations
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here? is it a silly way or are there better ways to choose to invest in these stocks? >> i don't know if we necessarily agree with that assessment. it seems like for years and years, many up and down wall street have been indicating that they've seen value and opportunity. and when it comes to the technology sector, the reality is that we haven't seen material outperformance from technology stocks since 2009. and while many point to the fact that p/e ratios are lower than the overall market, i'd point out that earnings and even revenue expectations when it comes to growth for 2013 and 2014 are notably below that of the broader market. so in terms of valuations and value, we're really focusing on very specific themes and very specific stocks. >> so you mentioned to me that you're looking at companies that are building cap ex expending
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rights to the telco companies, the cable companies. how do investors get exposure to those kind of stocks tilted towards that build up in cap ex expending right now? >> right. so we think that's a major theme to consider for 2014 where you have a lot of telecommunications companies and a lot of cable companies increasing their spending to become more competitive, to offering a variety of additional services to clients. a few names that we like in this area that are strong opinions include aris group as well as cabdium, which is a semi conductor company that manufacturers chips that go into a lot of these equipment as well as scienna. keep in mind cienna is scheduled to report tomorrow, that is wednesday. >> i thought i would mention it there. scott kessler, head of technology sector equity research at s&p capital iq.
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thanks for chatting with us. now, bye-bye barge. do you know what i'm talking about? san francisco tells google to find its floating four-story barge and new homes. josh lipton has all the details. >> it's like your local bartender might say, you don't have to go home, but you can't stay here. google has now been told by state officials that it must move its mystery barge by this friday. the barge right now is stationed on treasure island in san francisco bay. the san francisco bay conservation and development commission, that's the state regulator, says going the does not have the right building permits to stay where it is. why could the barge be headed? we reached out to google and they offed no comment on the barge's next move. there is speculation that the barge could more to stockton, california. but the port director at the port of stockton tells cnbc that she would love to have google at
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the port, but he tells us that google has not contacted him. he said other possible ports that could accommodate the barge include west sacramento or down south in south beach. google could stay in san francisco bay, but the company would have to get its paperwork in order. the showroom would generate a lot of buzz if the story in whatever port it's in. for most companies, of course, the idea of a floating interactive showroom might seem stretched, but google places a lot of emphasis on out of the box thinking and soon that out of the box thinking could find a home on a barge somewhere.
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activist investor carl icahn will be joining the u.s. "squawk box" team at 6:00 a.m. eastern or noon central european time. so make sure you stay tuned for that. now, just to keep you up to date with the latest news as far as the ukrainian crisis is concerned, we've been listening, hearing from the russian foreign minister talking this morning. remember, he said that he cannot order the self-defense forces in the crimea because they are not russian. john kerry, of course, responded to that. he's also said that there should be consult aegzs between the ukrainian and the crimean authorities. seeing international observers in the crimea region. the russians don't expect right now the ukrainian authorities.
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it's difficult to see how that would play out. he's saying talks of putting a u.s. missile system in the ukraine in exchange for financial aid is fueling tensions. let's give you a look at the u.s. futures. indicating lower. stay with us. more to come after the break. ♪ [ male announcer ] how could a luminous protein in jellyfish, impact life expectancy in the u.s., real estate in hong kong, and the optics industry in germany? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." u.s. and russia come face-to-face as john kerry gears up to meet russia's foreign minister in paris. the relief rally in the markets begin to fade as -- comes out of europe's trade. china sets an ambitious target of 7.5% gdp growth this year we defying specations of lower forecasts in some quarters. this as the national people's congress gets under way in beijing. standard chartered shares jump despite posting a drop in annual profits as the lender faces performance better than last year. the lender flashes its bonus pool by 15%. today's u.s. adp report should show hiring in the private sector slowed last month as winter weather continues to hamper jobs growth.
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>> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. if you're just tuning in, thank you for joining us here on "worldwide exchange." let me give you a look at how the u.s. futures are indicating ahead of the open later today. we're adding to the down side here, but it is very minor losses. we've got the dow indicating lower by around 10 points. the nasdaq lower by around 3 points and the s&p 500 lower by around 2.2. the strong gains from these markets ratcheting lower of the tensions in the ukraine, perhaps seeing a bit of consolidation here. not so surprising. let's look at the european markets. actually, turning further towards the downside, too, as the tree progresses here, minor losses. the ftse 100 lower by around 0.4%. german markets are lower. similar stories. the german markets are gaining 2%, 2.5% in yesterday's session.
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they're not pulling back all the losses that we've seen this week so far. the cac 40 in france lower by 0.4%. and the italian markets relatively unchanged today. let me give you a look at some of the stocks that we're following today out of the continuation of earnings season. standard chartered shares higher right now by around 1.5%. so losing some oep of the momentum that we saw earlier this morning. this after the bank says its current performance momentum is ahead of last year. the lender said its 2014 outlook was one of modest growth despite posting a 7% drop in 2013 pretax profits. the bank announced its bonus core was down 15% on 2012 levels. let's move over to the french markets now. and carrefour shares higher by just over 2%. it's the world's second largest retailer, saying it will spend more cash this year to renovate its stores, this after the company posted a 5.3% rise in
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full year operating profits, slightly ahead of analyst expectations. investors liking that stock, too. and investors reacting to adidas earni earnings, 1.3%. despite the form posting a 373% rise in sales at the top end of expectations. the company warned its 2014 results would be hit from a weakening in emerging market currencies, such as the ruble. they did also say that the ukrainian crisis specifically has considerable risk to the numbers this year. now back to our top story. u.s. secretary of state's john kerry and russian foreign minister sergei lavrov are due to hold face-to-face talks in paris today. the two are expected to test the dialogue of ukrainian crisis on lebanon and the syrian war.
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he adds the international community reacted wrongly to the unrest, setting a bad example to seize power in violation of the constitution. jim, of course, is in moscow right now. actually, we're going to speak to jeffrey, chief market strategist at lpl financial. jeffrey, the markets have been very quick to produce out any wider spread of on sentiment right now. do you continue to see reasons for the market to rally here and separate the situation in the ukraine? morning, julia. well, you know, markets have been trading in recent years to bounce back fairley quickly on the signs that any crisis is likely to be averted. we saw that with ee fwipt, we saw it in the drop brog
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recently, it's been better. we saw it earlier this week in some of the pmis and the uk and germany and france, elsewhere here in the u.s. and the back drop is one of buying, generally, unless it's -- unless investors get distracted by some of the macro data. we've got individual investors coming back to the stock market here in the u.s. we've seen good inflows over the course of the last couple of months. that's something we haven't seen for many years. buybacks continue. we heard from qualcomm yesterday upping their buyback. finalry, m&a activity is really taking off, about twice the base of the last year's m&a taking place so far this year. we've seen most of that push to the sidelines. >> for now, let's get the latest from jim maceda. jim, we've just heard from the russian foreign minister saying he can't remove the troops from
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the crimea region because they're not russian, they're peace keeping forces. he's echoing what we heard from vladimir putin yesterday, too. should we be concerned about noises like this coming from russia or are we still pushing towards a diplomatic solution? >> that's a great question, julia. and the answer, i believe, is that we shouldn't be. we shouldn't be too distracting by this rhetoric. and we should be happy to see the change in the past 24 hours. i mean, think about where we were yesterday at this time. pre-putin press conference. remember, he said many troubling things in that conference, but you also said that he saw no need for the use of force in ukraine and had no desire to an ex the crimen peninsula. i thought those were game changers and allowed the cold war style military confrontation that we've been reporting on for
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the past ten days to take a step back from the brink. obviously, we saw that relief expressed in the world's tock market reaction. it's no question that the crimea, it remains tense even on the ground today. you had a new report of russians seizing, i believe, two ukrainian missile posts. but the perception is that ukraine is spinning not towards war despite this rhetoric and parsing of words, whether they're russian forces, pro russian forces, local forces, but we are moving towards, i think, some kind of diplomatic solution. secretary of state's meeting with his russian counterpart, sergei lavro on h meeting today. the news is that they're doing it tall. >> how does putin we move the
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forces? without losing face here. >> i think that's what everything is working on right now. there's been an initiative by president obama and chancellor angela merkel so far international observers. if putin accepts the proposal, then what can happen is that these observers could go in, those mysterious men and women in uniform could pull back to their barracks. that would be an offramping or a face-saving gimmick or opportunity for him, for vladimir putin to do that without losing face. but otherwise, it's very hard to see this being any different than, let's say, in georgia where russian troops went in to protect local pro russian people
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and stayed and stayed because putin says that they were just taking their orders from their local commanders. >> thank you. let's take a look at today's other sttop stories. moody's has cut chicago's ratings again to a-3. the downgrade which affects more than $8 billion in debt is the second by moody's in less than eight months. the agency cites the city's pension woes and budget crisis. the mirror has warned without
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relief, chicago may be forced to double property taxes or elimination vital public services. general motors ceo mary berra faces the ultimate store for the recent recall. the vehicle is phenomenal for up to $1500 in charges. >> in a better to employees, mary barrett is cooperating with investigators. general motors is higher by around 1.6%. now, mortis, the independent
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investment bank is looking at raising up to $100 million in an ipo. the company was founded in 2007 after miller mohis. coming up, cash for credit. companies are scrambling to sell new debt to take advantage of low rates and investors can't seem to get up in of the corporate bonds. we'll run through the astounding numbers, numbers. [ male announcer ] we know they're out there.
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♪ welcome to "worldwide exchange." these are your headlines. ukraine tensions persist. u.s. secretary of state john kerry meets russia's foreign minister in paris today. china's annual policy meeting is under way. the company hoping to see 7.5% growth this year. and wintry weather in the u.s. expected to affect adp's job numbers for today. one of the hottest investments this year has nothing to do with stocks or emerging market economies. it's the u.s. corporate bond
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market, which is seen a high number of deals being priced. many in just the past few days. courtney reagan is at cnbc hq with all the details. morning, courtney. >> good morning to you. highly rated u.s. companies did sell more than $19 billion in debt. on tuesday, the busiest day of the year so far, in fact. we're looking to take advantage of the recent rally in treasuries to lock in those low rates. there were 13 deals priced on tuesday. the biggest game from gilliad sciences in tokyo mitsubishi ufj which each sold $4 billion in bonds. citigroup, etna, viacom and coke will lined up. the tally for march is nearly at $25 billion after just the first two trading days of the mop the the previous busiest day of the year starts january 16th. tuesday was the best day since
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verizon sold a record $49 billion in bond last september. refreshry bonds have rich due to the crisis in ukraine. the ten-year notoriety at 4.71 at the end of the last year. high grade corporate bonds have had a strong year posting a return of 2.1%, according to data from barclay's. last year, they were turning in negative 1.5% due partly in fears the rates would rise. junk bonds are having a pretty solid performance. five deals priced on tuesday for $2.4 billion. the next possible data risk on the calendar. and with all of the weather abnormalities, who knows what those numbers could show up to present. back to you. >> thanks very much, courtney. great to chat with you.
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on coming up in the show, just how much has the bad weather in the u.s. -- in the country's job growth? stay tuned for more analysis.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." as we take a look at the session, down inti 0.2% on the french market, ftse 100 we're bouncing in the last 20 minutes or no, now seeing a quarter of a percent lower. u.s. secretary of state john kerry and russian minister lavrov are due to hold talks in
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kiev today. how hopeful are the ukrainians of a further break through today as far as a diplomatic solution is concerned? >> i think possibly the best scenario they could see with the russian nato talks, with the lavrov/kerry talks, an accumulation of various initiati initiatives, the best scenario is getting independent boots on ukrainian to get into the crimea to de-escalate the situation there. because it seems that the position -- nothing has really happened for 24 hours down there, is it? it's an entrenched russian position or mr. putin's pro russian defense forces, which seem to be pretty much in control of all the administration, the infrastructure, the ports and airports down there. so the best scenario, julia, that could happen today would be that there's some independent bodies on the ground that could actually act as a barrier, of course, between the two forces and not rely on the
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self-restrained and the lack of provocation from either side. that's the best possible scenario. in the meantime, things have calmed down a little bit. putin, yes, saying they had no intention of invading, but reserving the right to do so. that was, again, many available threat. and indeed in the press have been scathing. >> steve, thanks so much for the update. and also the russians this morning saying that actually it does the ukrainians and the crimens to invite those international observers. perhaps constellatory to turn to from the russians on that point. let's give you a look at what's on today's agenda in the united states. the february adp employment report out at 8:15 eastern time. frafrs calling for an increase of 160,000 in payroll numbers last month. at the same time, we get the ism services data at 2:00 on p.m. also we've got the fed page book
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report. at 2:00, we have dallas front door president richard fisher and san francisco fed pretty john williams. charles plosser will be appearing exclusively on "squawk box" europe on tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. cet. so if you're a very early bird or up late on the east coast, that will be at 2:30 a.m. eastern, ouch, but we would love for you to join us, naturally. quick check on the u.s. futures this morning, trading slightly to the weaker side, you can see. but very, very minor losses as far as the markets are concerned. strong gains for the markets yesterday so a bit of consolidation here. jeffrey is still with us, of course. what are your expectations for the adp numbers later on today? and will it move the market? >> probably in that 150 to 175,000 range for payrolls. i don't think it's going to move the market. lately, the data has been better than expected.
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sp expectations got pretty low. weather has been an excuse. we almost got a free pass on the economic data here. if it surprises to the upside, i think the markets will take that seriously. stocks may rally a little bit, although they've captured a lot of those gains already. but the key here is even if the numbers come in very weak, well below that 150, 160 consensus expectation, we may get a free pass. the beige book today will be an important indication. the last one in january had 21 me mentions of weather. usually weather is not a big part of the beige book. this highlights the idea that data, if it surprises to the down side, gets ignored by markets. gets an excuse. >> so a green light as far as the markets are concerned. jeffrey, great to speak b to you. and that's it for today's show. i'm julia chatterley. remember, carl icahn coming up right now on "squawk box." stay tuned.
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good morning. welcome to "squawk box." the s&p 500 closing at a new high, well above 1850 now. we are in the green for the year. and jobs returning to center stage. we've got the adp report on private payrolls. that hits the tape at 8:15 eastern. and easing tensions in ukraine, u.s. secretary of state john kerry will meet face-to-face with his russian counterpart in paris. it's wednesday, march 5th, 2014, and "squawk box" begins right now.
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good morning, everybody. i'm barack obama along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we are live in new york city for a change in the big event. some are using the bar on if a lon three pea to raise awareness in the health care system and mt. sinai. here is our lineup this morning. dr. kenneth davis, the ceo of mt. sinai. peter mayo, peter orszag, richard freedman of goldman sachs and glenn dupin. plus, carl icahn will crawl in before the end of the show. stay tuned to for that. we also have honeywell holding its investor conference this

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